Forecasters Predict Droughts Instead of Blizzards

What Did the Report Say?

NOAA revealed that nearly two-thirds of the United States will likely have unseasonably warm conditions, especially in southern parts of the country. A horizontal swath of the most northern part of the country can expect wetter-than-normal conditions and a blizzard or other event related to cold temperatures. The regions most likely to experience these conditions are the northern part of Idaho, northwestern Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and Washington. Historically, a lot of snow and the occasional blizzard occur in the Northeast states as well, but these conditions aren’t expected this year. Middle states in a horizontal stripe across the country that extends as far as North Carolina might even experience drought conditions and the southern-most states might experience worse drought conditions.

Historic Weather Conditions

As of October 2020, nearly half of the country, 45 percent, is experiencing drought conditions. The country hasn’t seen this type of pattern in over seven years. Areas already struggling with wildfires because of drought, such as California and Oregon, could experience new fires. As winter progresses, Oregon should receive some relief as wetter conditions set in. Yet, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s Deputy Director, Mike Halpert, feels California won’t receive any relief. La Niña is altering meteorological conditions. It could even cause sharp Arctic “blasts” to occur in the central portion of the country. No one can predict if historic polar vortex conditions might occur this year. The chance of this type of event depends on rare, special circumstances that are difficult for experts to predict using any forecasting model.

Record-Breaking Fires

Many of the wildfires across the nation in 2020 have made the record books. California has experienced the destruction of more than four million acres, an area the size of Connecticut, from wildfires so far. The state’s first gigafire, The August Complex Fire, which started on August 15 as a group of 38 wildfires set off by lightning strikes, destroyed over a million of those acres and continues to burn in October with no clear end in sight. The Cameron Peak Fire in Colorado, which started on August 13 and also continues to burn, has been the largest wildfire in the history of that state. The Pine Gulch Fire earlier this year previously held the title. By Friday, the Cameron Peak Fire had destroyed more than 167,000 acres. Colorado fire officials don’t expect to have it contained until possibly as late as November 8, 2020.

Is Climate Change a Factor?

Scientists, meteorologists and others around the world have learned through research that humanity has altered the Earth to such a degree that man-made changes to climate are at least partially to blame for the hotter-than-normal, year-round temperatures and extreme conditions seen in recent years. Humans affect climate by disrupting fragile ecosystems and injecting greenhouse gases that increase global warming into the atmosphere. The most common human sources of changes to the climate are overpopulation and agricultural and industrial processes, such as widespread farming, deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels. During the initial stages of the pandemic, people saw a reduction of greenhouse gases simply because of fewer cars and long-haul commercial trucks on the road and the shutdown of the majority of air travel and industrial complexes. In May 2020, researchers revealed that the shutdown reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 17 percent in April. Global emissions on average dropped between 10 and 30 percent. Since then, experts have noted that this type of impact won’t become the norm unless humanity switches to more green policies.

Did Climate Change Cause the Pandemic?

The COVID-19 pandemic occurred for a variety of reasons that researchers don’t yet completely understand. Although many viruses die when exposed to heat, they usually only die with high heat exposures. People still became infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus in geographically and seasonally hot temperature areas. That said, climate change did have some impact on the spread of the virus. Some parts of country experienced warmer, milder conditions during the 2019-2020 winter season. Many people are less willing to travel in bad outdoor conditions. When areas that are normally prone to colder temperatures and harsh outdoor conditions experience warmer, milder ones, people are more likely to travel and socialize in close proximity of others. It’s also possible that events linked to changes in climate, such as increased wildfires, might force people into emergency evacuation and shelter situations that prevent them from social distancing enough to stop the spread of the virus.

What Can People Do to Prepare?

Experts agree that everyone should prepare for the possibility of extreme outdoor conditions no matter any yearly, seasonal predictions. The 2019 Polar Vortex proved that extreme cold temperatures can occur suddenly and with little forewarning. In areas currently experiencing drought conditions, people should always prepare for the possibility of evacuation. They should create a portable emergency kit that contains copies of important documents and photographs, extra prescription medicine, medical supplies and cash or a duplicate debit or credit card. Each person should have a personal emergency bag that contains the emergency kit, at least one outfit, underclothes, a jacket, a blanket, bottles of water and non-perishable foods. Vehicle owners should outfit their vehicles with an emergency kit that contains at least extra water, nonperishable food, blankets and an emergency radio. In potential wildfire areas, it’s also wise for people to invest in gap home and auto fire insurance coverage, if available.